AV Crash Trends 2021–2026: The Numbers Are Going Up
From 90 incidents in 2021 to 593 in 2025 — AV crashes are rising every year. Here's the full trend analysis.
Since NHTSA began collecting data under the Standing General Order in 2021, the annual count of reported AV/ADAS incidents has grown every single year. From 90 incidents in 2021 to 593 in 2025, the trajectory is unmistakable.
Year-by-Year Incident Growth
* 2026 data through April. Note: 4,624 incidents have "Unknown" reporting year.
The ADS Surge
The growth is driven primarily by ADS (fully autonomous) incidents. In 2021, there were 81 ADS incidents. By 2025, that jumped to 587 ADS incidents — a 7x increase. This reflects the rapid expansion of robotaxi fleets, particularly Waymo's aggressive rollout in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin.
ADAS incidents with known dates are relatively small (9 in 2021, 23 in 2022, etc.) because most Tesla ADAS incidents fall into the "Unknown" year bucket — a quirk of how Tesla reports to NHTSA.
The "Unknown" Year Problem
A massive 4,624 incidents have an "Unknown" reporting year. Of these, 3,554 are ADAS and 1,070 are ADS. All 68 fatalities are in this category. This makes year-over-year trend analysis for ADAS crashes — especially Tesla — difficult. The "Unknown" bucket likely contains incidents spanning the entire 2021-2026 period that weren't precisely dated in NHTSA's public release.
What's Driving the Growth
- Fleet expansion: Waymo, Zoox, and others are deploying more vehicles in more cities
- More miles driven: More AVs on the road means more incidents, even if per-mile safety improves
- Better reporting compliance: Manufacturers have improved their SGO reporting processes
- New market entries: Companies like Aurora, May Mobility, and Motional have entered the picture
What 2026 might hold
With 47 incidents already reported in early 2026, and the pace of ADS deployment accelerating, we expect the final 2026 number to surpass 2025's 593. The question isn't whether incidents are increasing — it's whether safety per mile is improving even as totals rise.
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