AV vs Human Safety Calculator
Enter your annual miles driven and see how your crash risk compares across human driving, Tesla Autopilot, and Waymo's fully autonomous system — with important caveats about what the numbers really mean.
Key Insights
- →Uses NHTSA FARS data for human baseline, Tesla's quarterly safety reports, and Waymo's Safety Impact Dashboard
- →Tesla's rate reflects mostly highway miles — comparing to all-road human averages inflates the benefit
- →Waymo's rate reflects urban city driving in SF, Phoenix, LA, and Austin
- →These are statistical averages — your personal risk depends on behavior, location, and conditions
Average American drives ~15,000 miles/year. Adjust to match your driving.
🚗 Human Driver
0.0310
Expected crashes/year
0.00019
Expected fatalities/year
⚡ Tesla Autopilot
0.0024
Expected crashes/year
92% fewer
vs human average
⚠️ Highway Bias Caveat
Tesla's rate is from mostly highway driving. The human average includes all roads. Comparing highway-only Tesla rates to all-road human rates inflates the safety benefit.
🤖 Waymo ADS
0.0106
Expected injury crashes/year
0.00030
Expected serious injuries/year
66% fewer
injury crashes vs human
At 15,000 miles/year, how many years until an expected crash?
32
years (human driver)
425
years (Tesla AP)
94
years (Waymo)
Disclaimer: These calculations use published crash rates from different sources with different methodologies. Tesla's rates reflect mostly highway driving; Waymo's reflect urban driving; human baselines include all conditions. Direct comparison is informative but not definitive. See our full analysis for methodology details.